On my latest conversation with Teemu, we warn people off the vaporware of crypto + AI tokens, go over how the market is changing - including how ETFs may provide a path to something that scans like IPOs - and discuss the Eigenlayer grants to prominent critics at the Ethereum Foundation.
I don’t currently see a clear path towards making a bet on undifferentiated Ethereum layer 2s.
Generally speaking…
So unless one is fully involved on ETH L2-land, it seems like the best way to bet on L2s winning (as opposed to fast L1s) would be an ETH bet.
One can make short-term bets based on TVL, where there is a clear power distribution emerging, but that’s it - and chances are that by the time there is a clear winner, it will be relatively late to make a bet.
The main outlier seems to be Polygon, who keeps striving to be something more than just an L2, so at least one could make a bet on one of their efforts surviving whatever L2 extinction level event is likely to hit eventually.
The only reason to invest in them is that they will likely have a higher beta, but that also means you can pick the wrong horse and underperform.
The only sensible way I see is some sort of portfolio that invests in the Top N and skews the amount based on TVL, rebalancing every so often.
Otherwise, I think if you aren’t involved in the communities you may miss moves that could cause them to bleed devs and TVL in a “gradually, then all at once” way.
Upgradeable smart contracts are like guns: they have their uses, but you need to make sure you trust the one holding them, and pray that they’re never used against you.